Show menu
Skip ad

#61. Why did markets rally today? Was it the Fed statement?

Thanks! Share it with your friends!

You disliked this video. Thanks for the feedback!

Added by tomm
4 Views
April 29, 2020.
-Unlikely the Fed statement.
-No new programs announced however there is positive news: a) People realize we are past the inflection point. There is no need for a field hospital in Central Park, b) Serology studies suggest infection rate far higher than thought (25% in NYC) which means the fatality rate has been overstated by an order of magnitude; Promising vaccine research; Promising anti-viral news; Public pressure on policy makers to pivot and end the lockdown.
-Growing expectation that Q4 will have a substantial snapback. My forecast Q1 -6% (after revision); Q2 -30%; Q3 -10%; Q4 +15% which means about -7.8%. The key Q3 and Q4. If we can hold Q3 at 0% that translates into -4.5%. If we can boost Q4 from +15% to +20%, that reduces the pain to -4.3%
Category
Sportcars

Post your comment

Comments

Be the first to comment