No, Tesla Model 3 DOES NOT Cost More than Gas Car to Fuel [highlight]

Unemployed Gambler, Anton Wahlman, recently claimed on Seeking Alpha that the Telsa Model 3 cost more to fuel than a gas car. This is my response. Get more at https://teslanomics.co/join

Watch the full show - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbJ81TBsJtM

Original article - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160351-tesla-model-3-costs-charge-gasoline-car

// Some quotes and my responses

"How does that compare to the gasoline cars? At 50 MPG and today’s nationwide average gasoline price of $2.65, that’s $0.05 per mile. In other words, it’s cheaper to drive the gasoline car than the Tesla Model 3.”

- okay so he cherry picks the most expensive states for supercharging, yet takes a national average of as prices? Seems legit…


"It is understood that you should not have to pay for a new EV battery within the first ten years, if for no other reason because of warranty and general expectations of reliability. However, at some point the day to buy a new battery will come. Perhaps not at the 10 year mark, but otherwise at 15, 20 or 25 years.”

- Do I need to comment on this?
- Data we’ve analyzed shows that the batteries will last upwards of 25 years, well beyond the typical ownership period. So a non-issue until 2043


"So at $250 per kWh, we are talking $20,000 as the total price for the 80 kWh battery, perhaps including installation and disposal, if necessary.”

- This assumes in 25 years the price of a battery is the same as today, and that’s not how technology works


From Forbes - https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/08/18/how-teslas-battery-strategy-could-drive-strong-margins-on-model-3/#346ebdba5cc9

"The price per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of lithium ion batteries has declined from an average of around $400 in 2012, when the Model S was launched to levels of under $150 currently. For instance, GM, says that it pays about $145 per kWh for batteries it sources from LG Chem for the Chevy Bolt.”

Final quote “ The math is simply devastating”

- This made me laugh, and wonder why he’s so afraid of doing math?


// Here’s the problem…

- assumes 100% supercharger
- Not practical or feasible
- Tesla will restrict your charging rate if so
- Damage to the battery can occur
Last study I did of 6,000 Tesla owners showed 91% of the time they charge at home


- Cherry picked data

- 6 states (Washington, Oregon, California, Florida, Virginia, Maryland, Massachusetts and New York)
- Used national avg gas price, versus supercharger price in these states


// I Built tool to show this
https://public.tableau.com/profile/bens#!/vizhome/TeslaModel3vsGasCar-MonthlyFuelCost/story

- In worst-case scenario, there are 6 states where it IS more expensive
- Again, that’s not reality



// Start with the data

- https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/PowerSearch.do?action=noform&path=1&year1=2017&year2=2019&vtype=Plug-in+Hybrid
- https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/
- http://www.gasbuddy.com/USA


// Pull it together

- Pulled it all together in a google sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nt0-xbanRNpgg_u0taXhCuC3isRBhZLfJ1yz4kCra_Q/edit#gid=0



// Results

- No, in the real-world a Tesla Model 3 does NOT cost more than even the best hybrid.



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